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	<title>The Rumpus.net &#187; Steven Church</title>
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		<title>On Loitering</title>
		<link>http://therumpus.net/2013/05/on-loitering/</link>
		<comments>http://therumpus.net/2013/05/on-loitering/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 07:13:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steven Church</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rumpus original]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[law]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[loitering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[police]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[race]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Racism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[youth]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>In Charles Moore’s iconic black-and-white photograph, Coretta looks on stoically, lips parted, hands clasped in front as her husband, Martin Luther King, has his right arm bent behind his back by a police officer in a tall hat.<span id="more-114399"></span><!--more--> Someone unseen, outside the frame, places a hand on Coretta’s left arm, as if to comfort or contain her.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In Charles Moore’s iconic black-and-white photograph, Coretta looks on stoically, lips parted, hands clasped in front as her husband, Martin Luther King, has his right arm bent behind his back by a police officer in a tall hat.<span id="more-114399"></span><!--more--> Someone unseen, outside the frame, places a hand on Coretta’s left arm, as if to comfort or contain her. Martin pitches forward over a counter, leaning to his right, his left hand splayed out for support on the polished surface. He wears a light colored suit and tie, a panama hat with a black band. The force of the officer’s grip has nearly yanked the jacket off his right shoulder. The officer’s left hand pushes against Martin’s left side, bunching up his jacket, shoving him forward, bending him over the counter. Another officer stands behind Martin’s right shoulder, but you can only see the top of his hat and his right arm resting casually on the counter. A hatless white officer stands behind the counter and our perspective peers over his right shoulder into Martin’s face. He doesn’t look pained. Resigned perhaps, sadly familiar with this sort of treatment. The man behind the counter seems to be reaching out with his left hand to take something or give something (a piece of paper perhaps) from Martin as his right arm blurs at the bottom edge of the frame. Martin, his eyes pulled all the way to the right, is either looking at the man behind the counter or at someone else we can’t see. The date is September 3, 1958 in the Montgomery, Alabama county courthouse. Martin Luther King Jr. is there to support his longtime friend, Ralph Abernathy, a Baptist minister testifying in the trial of a deranged man charged with chasing Abernathy down the street with a hatchet. In the photo, King has just been arrested for loitering. He will spend fourteen days in jail as punishment for his crime. The strange thing is that in Moore’s photograph it is not Martin or Coretta who look afraid. It’s the policemen who appear flustered and scared. The photo is superficially silent. But you can still see how blurry with fear they are of his power and presence, quivering before his radical subjectivity in that space.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-MLK.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-114403 aligncenter" alt="Loitering-MLK" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-MLK.jpg" width="418" height="284" /></a></p><p style="text-align: center;">***</p><p>Loitering is not particularly difficult or physically demanding. It doesn’t, at first blush, appear revolutionary or even criminal. Consider that “loiter” is an intransitive verb. There is no object to it. It is all subject and subjectivity. To loiter requires simply that you stand around or sit aimlessly, without purpose, to choose a space because it happens to be in the shade, or just happens to be there. Anywhere. The key to pure loitering—the most honest embodiment of the word’s spirit—is of course to do nothing. Absolutely nothing.</p><p>But it has become bigger than that. Revolutionary. To do nothing now in the name of loitering is also to repurpose in the name of purposeless an otherwise purposed space. And we are surrounded by purposed spaces. To loiter then is a kind of zen-like appropriation, a subjective possession of objective, though often marginal space; and perhaps this is enough to make it revolutionary, enough to threaten those who are invested in the purposing or owning of such space. It worries us when someone does nothing, even when they seem to be doing nothing on a street corner, a roadway median, an alley or some other marginal space. We’re so busy, so purposeful; and in our world of increasing technological connection, we’re always engaged in some activity. It’s hard for us to understand the nothingness of loitering.</p><p>Part of the trouble is that it is nearly impossible to define “doing nothing” from “doing something,” so people who truly loiter assume a kind of vague, dangerous amorphous potentiality. The ambiguity of their physical and moral position frightens us. After all, when is any one of us actually doing nothing in any space? Have you ever truly done <i>nothing</i>?</p><p>Even when I putter around my yard or sit on my front porch, thinking about whatever I’m currently writing or reading, aren’t I still doing something, even if that something is only thinking? I’m still using the space with an intent that seems to fit the space. I wonder how long I could loiter on my street corner, just stand around thinking and watching people and traffic without drawing unwanted attention to myself. I wonder if that time would be different if I lived in a wealthier, gated community on the North side of town, one of those places where they don’t really have street corners. What if I just stood around in the middle of a cul-de-sac? Or if I lived in a more poverty-stricken, gang-controlled neighborhood in a different part of town would my loitering embody a different potentiality? Of course it would. The objective nothingness in my loitering allows my subjectivity to be shaped to the expectations of the context.</p><p>Loitering then as an idea is as undefined, abstract, and subjective as happiness or suffering. It can be adapted and appropriated, shaped to fit the situation; and then laws or ordinances or signs that attempt to regulate loitering are the ontological equivalent of ordinances regulating or controlling happiness or suffering. They are perhaps the most common legislative manifestations of the conflict between subjective intent and attempts at objective measurement of said intent.</p><p>Sometimes I think about this when I visit the Food King market in my neighborhood, a subjectively happy place, a true neighborhood convenience store. It feels like home to me. I don’t even care that it costs me nearly twenty dollars for two six-packs of beer. The brothers, Mo and Najib, who own the Food King, emigrated to the U.S. from Yemen and are exceedingly nice to me, always calling me by name. They know <i>most</i> of their customers by name; sometimes Najib’s bespectacled son sits behind the counter working on his homework. Mo and Najib often talk about the weather and they’re usually listening to NPR on the radio. But they also have prominent “No Loitering” signs posted on the front of the store and a bank of video monitors that allow them to keep and eye on every part of their property. You have about as much time to linger in front of the Food King as you do in front of an airport. Pause too long and you will be hustled along.</p><p>Mo and Najib have to deal with challenges I can barely imagine. Fresno is a dangerous place filled with desperate people. Nobody really denies this reality. We just live with it. But Mo and Najib run a tight ship, more than most places. They keep their store clean and free of the crowds that loiter around elsewhere. They never hesitate to chase off the street-kids and panhandlers, the tweakers or the prostitutes; and I have to admit that I appreciate this, that it makes me feel somewhat safer as a consumer.</p><p>When I asked Mo one day about his “No loitering” signs and how he enforces the rule, he told me that he just tells any loiterers to move along, and if they don’t move, he might threaten to call the police.</p><p>“But would they come?” I asked.</p><p>“Yeah, sure. Maybe. But if you just mention the police, they mostly move along.”</p><p>“And if they don’t?”</p><p>“If they don’t, I take my stick out there and I tell them I’m gonna count to three and then I’m gonna hit you with this stick.”</p><p>Mo didn’t show me his stick but I guessed it was some kind of baton. I didn’t doubt his conviction. Mo meant business. To him the issue was all black-and-white, no gray area, no room for interpretation. This was his property, his Food King, and he was in charge of defining loitering in this subjective space. He also told me he had a gun under the counter if it came to that.</p><div id="attachment_114405" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 442px"><a href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Food-King.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-114405 " alt="Loitering-Food King" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Food-King.jpg" width="432" height="323" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The Food King. Fresno, CA 2013</p></div><p style="text-align: center;">***</p><p>Perhaps the most extreme example of the threatening potentiality of loitering is in the context of an elementary school, an exaggeratedly purposed and morally charged public space. If you stand around outside the playground fence of a school, just stand there long enough, most likely your loitering will be seen as a threat and you will most likely be confronted by authority figures. In Fresno all the schools are surrounded by six-foot chain-link safety fencing. If you’re loitering around a school, regardless of your intent (maybe you’re studying the architecture of schools for a class) you might be arrested or at least just hassled and hustled along. There are signs posted everywhere forbidding all manner of activities, including dog walking, golfing, model-airplane flying, and loitering; and as a parent of elementary school children, I’m glad to see those signs when we take our dog there for walks. I don’t really care if you’re flying model-airplanes at my daughter’s school, but I do care if you’re loitering there. It doesn’t matter to me if you’re innocently researching something for a novel or an essay, maybe snapping photos with your IPhone, I just want you to move along and take your subjectivity elsewhere. An elementary school is a place where the objective truth of the context overwhelms the subjective truth of anyone who moves through the space. Your rights are necessarily limited there, and it doesn’t end at the fence. The rights-defining power of an Elementary School space extends well beyond the fences, past the sidewalks, into the streets, where the rules of driving are more stringent and more morally charged, and even further beyond into surrounding neighborhoods, where legal penalties for things like narcotics trafficking are increased. In such spaces the objective meaning of the place overwrites your subjective intent.</p><div id="attachment_114404" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 442px"><a href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Hamilton.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-114404" alt="Loitering-Hamilton" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Hamilton.jpg" width="432" height="558" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Hamilton Elementary School, Fresno, CA 2013</p></div><p style="text-align: center;">***</p><p>It is also the vague undefined nature of loitering combined with the impossibility of truly knowing or measuring subjective intent that has allowed anti-loitering laws and ordinances to be used as a weapon against civil disobedience. Martin Luther King was arrested because anti-loitering laws on the books in Montgomery allowed the police, regardless of the facts of that day, to define King’s presence, to shape his intent into something criminal, something they could use to control him. He was just attending a public trial. But anti-loitering laws allowed the police to arrest him for being black in a white space.</p><p>Attempts to criminalize loitering have been used more recently to try and control gang activity, drug sales, panhandling and prostitution, as well as to control populations of homeless people and protesters in the nationwide “Occupy” movement. These efforts, though often temporarily successful, are often doomed to failure, perhaps because of the very nature of loitering itself. Courts have recognized that anti-loitering laws often encourage racial profiling and police abuse of marginalized groups. Legislating loitering is like legislating nothingness.</p><p>In February 2012, New York City settled a class action lawsuit brought on behalf of thousands of citizens arrested over the years on anti-loitering charges that had been deemed unconstitutional. The city’s efforts to control loitering over a span of thirty years will ultimately cost them fifteen million dollars and require them to expunge thousands of arrests and convictions. There is little evidence to suggest, however, that this will change the way anti-loitering laws and ordinances are used to control marginalized populations in this country. We are simply too purposed and possessive of our objective spaces, too frightened by the potential of loiterers.</p><p>In other communities, perhaps due to the challenges of defining and enforcing anti-loitering ordinances, business owners are turning to less obviously confrontational, more passive, subjective, and subliminal deterrence methods. They’re turning to sound warfare as a way to avoid the whole messy enterprise of objectively measuring and legislating against subjective intent. Perhaps they’re doing this because it protects them from images of abuse and violence and the cultural resonance created by such pictures.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Pepper-Spray.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-114401 aligncenter" alt="Loitering-Pepper Spray" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Pepper-Spray.jpg" width="432" height="289" /></a></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>***</b></p><p><i>The Mosquito was invented in Wales several years ago.</i></p><p><i>Moving Sound Technologies has been marketing and selling the Mosquito throughout North America.  Many cities, municipalities, school districts, and parks boards use the Mosquito to combat vandalism</i><i> </i></p><p><i>The patented Mosquito is a small speaker that produces a high frequency sound much like the buzzing of the insect it’s named after.  This high frequency can be heard by young people 13 to 25 years old.</i></p><p><i>The latest version of the Mosquito is called the MK4 Multi-Age. It has two different settings one for teenagers 13 – 25 years and one setting for all ages.</i><i> </i></p><p><i>When it is set to 17KHz the Mosquito can only be heard by teenagers approximately 13 to 25 years of age.</i><i> </i></p><p><i>When set to 8 KHz the Mosquito can be heard by all ages.</i></p><p><i>In case you thought Mosquito is all about annoying sound that would force the loiterers to run for cover you would be in for a pleasant surprise!</i></p><p><i>The Music Mosquito is a complete music system that will relay Royalty free Classical or Chill-out music that would keep the teenagers away to some extent.</i></p><p><i>Mosquito has a strong steel body .  .  .</i><i> </i></p><p><i>Mosquito anti loitering device is a handy option to suppress vandalism and the issues of graffiti aggressively.</i></p><p><strong><i>The Mosquito Device can help with Teen Loitering Problems</i></strong><i>.</i></p><p><i>Mosquito has a strong steel body .  .  .</i><i> </i></p><p><strong><i>The Mosquito Device can help with Gang Loitering Problems</i></strong><i> </i></p><p><i>Mosquito has a strong steel body .  .  .</i></p><p><strong><i>The Mosquito Device can help with Vandalism Problems</i></strong></p><p><i>Mosquito has a strong steel body .  .  .</i></p><p><strong><i>The Mosquito Device can help with Grafitti</i></strong><a href="#_ftn1">[1]</a> <em><strong>Problems</strong></em></p><p><i>Mosquito has a strong steel body .  .  .</i></p><div id="attachment_114402" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 442px"><a href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Mosquito.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-114402" alt="Loitering-Mosquito" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Mosquito.jpg" width="432" height="264" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The Mosquito</p></div><p style="text-align: center;">***</p><p>At night now in Fresno or in your city they might gather beneath the glow of street-lamps, lurking around its penumbral cone of light. Packs of teenagers. Black kids. Brown kids. White kids. Brawny boys in baggy clothes, hats and team jerseys; pale, inked kids wearing white wife-beaters; girls in skinny jeans, high-heels and higher hair; or a population of bearded men smiling through meth-snaggled teeth, shuffling burnouts and tweakers with face tattoos, gang bangers with bulldog paws or red lips painted permanently on their necks; or maybe it’s those ubiquitous kids at a suburban mall wearing Polo shirts and skinny jeans, high-top sneakers, and puffy Tommy Hilfiger jackets and they’re loitering around Jamba Juice or the movie theater, around your neighborhood school, or outside your business every night. These are the loiterers, the idle enemies of consumption and purpose. These are the targets of subjective warfare.</p><p>In my hometown, the high school kids from outlying rural communities used to drive to downtown Lawrence, park their trucks backwards in the diagonal spaces along Massachusetts St. and set up lawn chairs in the beds. They watched the rest of us stroll past as if we were specimens in museums. Often we looked the part. Often things were said. Often there were fights. Often there was litter and vandalism. Several merchants installed strobe lights in the windows of their stores, leaving them on all night long as a kind of light-deterrent, a passive form of loitering enforcement. It worked, too. After a while nobody wanted to park or linger in front of those shops. There were fewer fights there, less litter and vandalism. But the lights also just made the business owners seem kind of mean and intolerant.</p><p>It doesn’t matter, really, what loiterers look like for the purposes of the Mosquito or for a strobe light. Such passive forms of loitering deterrence don’t discriminate on the basis of color, class, caste, or clothing choice. They cannot violate rights in part because we have few clear legal protections against noise or light pollution, despite its obvious influence on subjective experiences of happiness or suffering. Noise might not violate your rights. It can’t bend you over a counter and handcuff you, but it can violate your space and subjectivity. It can make it hard to think, even hard to do nothing.</p><p>What matters to the Mosquito is not the motivations of the loiterer, but simply that the subjective loitering body courses with blood and has ears with which to listen. In this way it is much like a bomb. A very smart bomb. What makes the Mosquito insidious is how it targets the age of the loiterer, his youth and the way his brain processes sound. Imagine a bomb that only wipes out people of a certain age, a bomb that targets only the young. The mosquito doesn’t care about the kinetic potential for chaos, for unpredictable behavior inherent in their stasis. It doesn’t care about anything because the mosquito is a machine designed to create an automatic physiological response, because its intrusion into your subjective internal space is silent, indiscriminate, and subtly violent.</p><p>The danger of loiterers at rest is that bodies will remain at rest until acted upon by an outside force. The danger is the malicious pull of idle hands toward evil deeds. And the popular imagination associates loitering—a behavior defined specifically by its purposelessness—with all sorts of bad or illicit purposes; most notably property crimes like vandalism and graffiti, as well as with gang activity and prostitution. And because there is often little else for them to do, no other place for them to gather, teenagers—the ultimate in-betweeners—are regular offenders of anti-loitering efforts and ordinances. By their very nature, teenagers embody the conflict between objective rules and expectations and subjective intent. They live perpetually in the liminal space between outside rules and their internal wills. Teenagers are all subjectivity, all solipsistic fervor; they are in essence loitering between childhood and adulthood, embodying that marginalized space with intent that is often inscrutable to those of us living outside that space.</p><p>In my neighborhood, the loitering teens move between a series of spots, these odd sort of in-between places like the island of a parking lot behind Starbucks and Bobby Salazar’s Mexican restaurant, or someone’s yard, perhaps the community garden, up against the brick wall of the Brass Unicorn and the Starline or in the side-yard of an apartment building on Moroa Ave. You won’t find them outside the Food King, but nearby in side-streets and alleyways, lounging in various liminal spaces.</p><p>Much to the chagrin of many Fresno shoppers, we also find loitering teens on the wealthy, north side of town at the clay-colored strip mall called River Park, a palace to consumerism and multi-national corporations that, in effort to curb loitering, not long ago tried to ban unaccompanied teenagers from the premises. That didn’t work so well.</p><p>A parent or other objectively recognized adult had to be with any teenager on the premises. It wasn’t clear how the mall intended to enforce this, if they planned to randomly ID anyone who looked young enough to be a teenager. Perhaps they simply should have installed Mosquito anti-loitering devices in the same places they’ve installed Musak speakers and security cameras. We fear teenagers not because of their loitering itself—that gray penumbral area between right and wrong—but because the act of doing so suggests, by its mere existence, the possibility for harm, for mayhem and destruction. We fear their unbridled youth and all of its sublime potentiality. We fear their marginalization because it lives outside the boundaries of our control.</p><div id="attachment_114406" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 442px"><a href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Banksy.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-114406" alt="Loitering-Banksy" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Banksy.jpg" width="432" height="355" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Banksy, Lower Ninth Ward, New Orleans, LA</p></div><p style="text-align: center;"> ***</p><p>One day not long ago as I was driving home from lunch with a friend, I took a side street that parallels a major thoroughfare, a street known as a popular hangout for the Fresno street kids and the homeless. A homeowner who has been working on remodeling a large house that backs up to the street recently installed a painted wooden fence and stacked-stone planters surrounding mature pomegranate trees. He’s created a lovely little oasis of landscape architecture that would appeal to nearly anyone’s aesthetic; and as I drove past this oasis, I saw a loose pack of loitering teens lounging around the planters, smoking, pawing at each other, laughing, and doing nothing. All of them. Loitering. Just sitting there, doing nothing. And I felt this momentary urge to yell at them or drive them away somehow, but I wasn’t sure why. Perhaps it was jealousy. Perhaps it was fear.</p><p>Unless I’m writing or reading, I have trouble sitting still for ten minutes. I can’t imagine doing it for 2 or 10 hours. I wondered if the homeowner might want to think about getting the Mosquito anti-loitering device, if he might want to agitate their space and send out high-pitched squeals of deterrent noise. I thought this might be something that I would do if I owned the house; but even as I thought it, I cringed at the idea, the invasion and violation of space, as well as at the aesthetic and moral cruelty of creating an otherwise appealing place that would be simultaneously physiologically repulsive, a space whose 17 MHz of Mosquito noise would hurt the ears of young people.</p><p>These days when teenagers loiter across the street from our house, making-out or smoking weed from a can or a pipe or a blunt-wrap, I mostly ignore them. Some days I want to tell them to move along or to just smoke somewhere else. Some days I want to warn them that other people aren’t so understanding, that the police often patrol our street since it’s so close to the high school. But the most I ever do, if I’m out front with my kids, is give the teenagers a hard stare, maybe a wave to let them know I see them, to suggest they might move along.</p><p>I’ve thought about calling the police, but the Fresno police frighten me more than loitering teenagers. They shoot people. Pretty regularly. I don’t want these kids to get shot or even arrested. And besides I don’t really want to be <i>that</i> guy&#8211;the asshole neighbor who calls the cops on kids. The truth is they’re not hurting anyone except maybe themselves. They’re just hanging around because they can, because they have nowhere else to go. My friends and I did similar stuff in high school. We used to drive out into the Kansas countryside, down empty gravel roads, to find space where we could smoke or drink. These kids like to linger against the tall fence along my neighbor’s side yard and sit beneath the overhanging tree on the stacked railroad ties. It’s only a block from Fresno High School, away from the crush of other kids and just beyond the boundaries of school space. It seems safe enough, like a place where they can loiter in peace.</p><p>Who am I to deny them this space?</p><p>I watch them sometimes and I think about Mo and his stick, his gun under the counter. I think about the Mosquito and I wonder how I would react if the teenagers crossed the street, crossed the line and started loitering in my yard, if they even got close to my daughter and invaded my subjective space.</p><p>I’m not sure I would even count to three.</p><p>I like to think I’m a long way from those white officers in Moore’s photograph, those agitated and frightened white men who pressed King against the counter, twisting his arm behind his back, arresting him for eternity in the objective space of that everlasting image. But I realize I’m also guilty. I’ve let my own subjective fear shape the way I define loitering. I’ve let my imagination carry me away, let my own context—home and family, children and dog, yard and garden—condition the meaning of the teenagers’ nothingness and I’ve let it color their lingering at the periphery of my space. The street is the line, I tell myself. It’s a wide and fuzzy boundary between us. But it is a boundary.</p><p>One day a boy crossed the line. He approached the house. The kids were in the front yard. My girlfriend met him at the driveway. I’d gone inside for a minute and came out to see her walking back toward the garage. She moved with purpose. I followed her. The boy waited at the end of the driveway.</p><p>“What’s up?” I asked.</p><p>“He wants to borrow a soccer ball,” my girlfriend said as she smiled and walked past me, down the driveway and tossed him the ball. I felt my blood cool, retreating from full-boil. There was no danger, no threat. There was nothing for me to fear.</p><p>“It’s OK,” she said.</p><p>The boy and his three friends, another boy and two girls, set up “goals” in the middle of the street made of wadded-up fast-food bags and wrappers. They played soccer on the asphalt for a while, darting out of the way when cars came. They were out there long enough for my kids and I to drift back inside. The boys flirted shamelessly with the girls and showed off with the ball. All of them laughed a lot. They seemed so happy. I watched them through the windows near the front door, listening to the sounds of their youth. They moved with ease and grace between the curbs, lingering in the in-between spaces with such sweet purpose.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Street-Soccer.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-114400 aligncenter" alt="Loitering-Street Soccer" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Loitering-Street-Soccer.jpg" width="320" height="240" /></a></p><p>***</p><p><a name="_ftn1"></a>[1] Sic. All italicized passages taken from the Moving Sound Technologies website.<br /><h3 class='related_post_title'>Related Posts:</h3><ul class='related_post'><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2013/04/the-sacred-and-the-profane/' title='The Sacred and the Profane'>The Sacred and the Profane</a></li><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2013/04/yellow-peril-and-the-american-dream/' title='Yellow Peril and the American Dream'>Yellow Peril and the American Dream</a></li><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2013/03/psy-the-clown-vs-psy-the-anti-american-on-stereotypes-the-individual-and-asian-american-masculinity/' title='PSY the Clown vs. PSY the “Anti-American”: On Stereotypes, the Individual, and Asian American Masculinity'>PSY the Clown vs. PSY the “Anti-American”: On Stereotypes, the Individual, and Asian American Masculinity</a></li><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2013/01/indian-river/' title='Indian River'>Indian River</a></li><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2012/12/sleep-song-the-poetic-epilogue-to-war-cancelled/' title='&lt;em&gt;Sleep Song&lt;/em&gt;, The Poetic Epilogue to War, Cancelled'><em>Sleep Song</em>, The Poetic Epilogue to War, Cancelled</a></li></ul>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Field Trip to the Earthquake Lab, 2010</title>
		<link>http://therumpus.net/2013/01/field-trip-to-the-earthquake-lab-2010/</link>
		<comments>http://therumpus.net/2013/01/field-trip-to-the-earthquake-lab-2010/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2013 09:20:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steven Church</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[rumpus original]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earthquakes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://therumpus.net/?p=109195</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<em>The plan was </em>not<em> to cause an earthquake. The USGS would tell you that this is nearly impossible. They would tell you that humans are just too insignificant to affect the seismicity of our planet.</em>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The tiny town of Parkfield, California is the closest thing in the United States to a living seismic laboratory, a place where the United States Geological Survey and other organizations test out the best theories of earthquake origin, prediction, preparation, and response. On the surface Parkfield is a quiet ranching town with 18 permanent residents at the northern end of the Cholame Valley, but it’s also a town that sells itself as the Earthquake Capitol of the World.</p><p>The truth is there’s not much to see. But beneath the surface Parkfield is constantly rumbling with earthquakes, little ones all the time and bigger ones hitting more than most people would care to experience. Though it may not have the greatest quantity of earthquakes, it has perhaps had the greatest number of <em>quality</em> earthquakes—somewhat predictable big quakes that can be scientifically studied. Parkfield is probably the most mapped and measured spot along the notorious 800 mile long San Andreas Fault.</p><p>The San Andreas is a transform, or strike-slip fault defined by movement of the North American and Pacific plates as they grind against each other. The Pacific plate moves roughly northward while the North American plate drifts southward. Every now and then this slow tense grind lets loose with a dramatic slip and an earthquake occurs. The Grand Tejon quake of 1857, a truly massive 8+magnitude temblor, locked up the Parkfield section of the fault, creating a zone of nearly constant grinding seismicity. Beginning in the late 60’s and early 70’s the USGS set up shop in Parkfield, rigging the landscape with a vast net of seismometers, tilt meters, gas sniffers, cameras, and more recently GPS and satellite technology, all in an effort to “capture” a 6+ magnitude earthquake.</p><p>“Capture” suggests an effort akin to catching lightning in a bottle, an attempt at harnessing chaos; and the plan <em>was</em> to “capture” as in frame, freeze like a photograph, a specimen to be studied, dissected and mapped, as if they were neuroscientists charting the brain-waves and behavior of their most cherished and confounding patient, this eternally seizing epileptic planet we call home.</p><p>The plan, dubbed the Parkfield Experiment, was to wait for a big quake to hit the region&#8211;something that seemed fairly easy to predict based on the abundance of seismic activity in the valley&#8211;and to use their monitoring equipment to record every aspect of its behavior, thereby providing the USGS with a comprehensive map of the quake’s personality. They wanted to see all the foreshocks, fissures, P-waves, S-waves, amplitudes and aftershocks. The plan, to some people, was ambitious, and perhaps a bit crazy. The plan was to capture a quake that would allow an unprecedented picture of an earthquake and provide the kind of data that could refine the admittedly rudimentary science of earthquake prediction. The plan was <em>not</em> to cause an earthquake. The USGS would tell you that this is nearly impossible. They would tell you that humans are just too insignificant to affect the seismicity of our planet.</p><p style="text-align: center;">***</p><p>In the summer of 2010 the USGS office in Parkfield was housed in a brown singlewide mobile home parked next to the Cal-Fire station, not far from the Parkfield Café and the Parkfield Inn. I drove down one morning from my home in seismically silent, Fresno for a meeting with Andy Snyder, the man largely responsible for supervising the Parkfield experiment for the last six years. By the time Snyder arrived in in the Cholame Valley in 2004 for an ambitious new phase of the Parkfield Experiment, the USGS had been waiting almost forty years to capture their ultimate target earthquake, a big 6+-magnitude rumbler. It had been a long wait, so long in fact that priorities had begun to shift, methods had begun to change. Andy Snyder was the man charged with supervising these new priorities and new methods. No longer satisfied just sitting around waiting for a big quake, the USGS had decided to go after them where they lived.</p><p>When I met Snyder, he drove a black Mazda Miata with a vanity plate that read, “EQHAZRD,” which he parked beneath the shade of a small carport just steps away from the narrow brown modular trailer where he spent much of an average day staring at a computer, monitoring the vast array of sensing equipment spread around the Cholame Valley. Snyder watched it all, but paid special attention to data coming in from his pet, his baby, a truly monumental undertaking that defined the new priorities in Parkfield, something called the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth, or more colloquially, SAFOD.</p><p>Snyder was neither tall nor short and with his sandy blond hair, ruddy complexion and blue jeans looked like he’d be comfortable parked at a beachfront bar or hitting golf balls on Sundays. Snyder didn’t live in Parkfield, couldn’t live here, he told me. Instead he commuted from San Luis Obispo, and liked it that way because the town had things like restaurants, grocery stores, farmer’s markets, wine-bars, movie theatres and art galleries.</p><p>“It has culture,” he said with an audible wink.</p><p>Snyder took over in Parkfield after working in the oil and gas industry in what he called, “exploration.” Snyder wasn’t a geophysicist. He was a driller, oil mostly. He was an engineer, not a scientist. That’s why the USGS brought him here to supervise SAFOD, a massive drilling effort funded at least in part by the National Science Foundation. The ambitious goal of the project was to drill a three-foot diameter shaft directly into the San Andreas fault itself, and to not only monitor seismic activity as close to the source as possible but also to bring back core rock samples from the fault for scientific study. The plan was to go after earthquakes in their nest, to study them at the source.</p><p>If you’re like me, when you hear about something called the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth, then you dwell on that word “observatory,” and imagine yourself in a sealed-off glass enclosure descending into the earth on some kind of funicular track with a tour guide in a uniform. You imagine yourself staring into a chasm or cross section of rock that reveals the San Andreas Fault in action. You hear “observatory” and expect a tour guide’s measured delivery of facts mixed in with the pull of human-interest stories, and you begin to believe that you’re in for some kind of hands-on experience where you engage with the shifting landscapes of geological time in meaningful and significant ways. You might even expect to buy a t-shirt in the gift shop.</p><p>This is not SAFOD.</p><p>Snyder had tried to warn me. In a tersely worded email he said Parkfield wasn’t what he’d call a “science travel” destination. <a href="#_Anchor1">[1]</a></p><p>When I asked him that day if I could visit SAFOD he looked at me like I was stupid, paused and said, “It’s just a shack and a slag pit.”</p><p>“Um, OK,” I said, nervously rubbing my hands on my knees. My dreams of seeing the San Andreas died with a whimper.</p><p>Snyder swiveled back and forth in his desk chair and then kept talking. “Right now we’re dealing with the problem of what to do with all the stuff we took out.”</p><p>I admit I was disappointed there was nothing to see, nothing to visit. SAFOD, I learned, was a monumental project with no monument, an observatory hidden away on an isolated section of the San Andreas on private property, totally inaccessible to the public. The only thing you could really observe from SAFOD was sensor readout on Andy Snyder’s computer.</p><p>I’d come to Parkfield hoping to see the San Andreas, perhaps to feel something big like an earthquake. But I’d expected too much.</p><p>“The fault itself is only a couple of inches wide in some places,” Snyder told me, holding up his fingers to show me the gap. “It’s surrounded by looser material, but the crack itself isn’t much at all.”</p><p>“Really?”</p><p>“Sure, but ‘s 10 miles deep and 800 miles long.”</p><p>“Ten <em>miles</em> deep?”</p><p>“Maybe more.”</p><p><a class="lightbox" title="url-1" href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/url-1-e1359363653355.jpeg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-110386" title="url-1" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/url-1-e1359363653355.jpeg" alt="" width="600" height="206" /></a></p><p>That’s 52,800 feet, or nearly 25,000 feet higher than the tallest mountains on the planet and 20,000 feet higher than the altitude at which passenger jets fly. Snyder showed me giant educational poster boards that stretched nearly from one side of the trailer to the other and illustrated in bright colors how the SAFOD drill-rig punched it’s three-foot and descending diameter shaft three miles, or almost 16,000 feet down into the earth’s crust, bending at forty-five degrees right before plunging straight into the San Andreas Fault itself like a needle taking a biopsy.</p><p>I asked Snyder if the USGS worried about the danger, the potential seismic impact of drilling a hole that wide and deep into the most active fault zone in North America.</p><p>“Sure, we thought about that,” Snyder said, “but it’s the equivalent of sticking a push-pin into that wall.”</p><p>He pointed to the wall of his trailer, chuckled, and returned to his giant posters.</p><p>I laughed, too, but I was still staring at the wall and thinking: <em>inches wide and miles deep.  </em>I was thinking about hundreds or thousands of pushpins shoved into a crack in the wall. I imagined the biggest push-pin in the world, a huge cartoonish red thing plunging into a fragile egg laced with cracks and fissures covering a boiling core, a shell that floats around on that center, moving on a geological clock, apparently independent and inconsiderate to the efforts of human survival. Or maybe not. Maybe human life and the life of our planet are more intimately connected than we truly understand. Maybe when we poke and prod, drill and blast into the earth, we unleash consequences we can’t predict.</p><p style="text-align: center;"> ***</p><p>Soon after drilling at SAFOD was coming to an end in 2004, just as they were settling into the next monitoring phase of the Parkfield Experiment, at 10:15 in the morning of September 28, a magnitude 6 earthquake rippled up from nearly 5 miles beneath the surface and rumbled through the valley, the biggest Parkfield earthquake in nearly 40 years. As the USGS watched and listened, the quake shook long enough (nearly 10 seconds) and hard enough to become the most “captured” quake in the history of the Parkfield Experiment.</p><p>It was kind of a big deal. A resounding success. But few people outside of Parkfield or the somewhat insular community of seismologists and earthquake obsessives knew much about it. Nobody was killed or injured. There was a little property damage. Life in the Cholame Valley proceeded mostly uninterrupted, just as it always does.</p><p>When I visited some six years later with geophysicists, Andy Michael and Diane Moore at the USGS Western Regional Headquarters in Menlo Park, California, I asked again if anyone living in the Cholame Valley in 2004 had raised concerns about the drilling at SAFOD and the 2004 Parkfield quake. I was basically asking if anyone blamed them for causing the quake they were happily studying.</p><p>We stood in a hallway staring at brightly colored posters on SAFOD. The USGS likes posters and maps, and I’d already spent a delirious few minutes collecting maps and other documents from their sales department before wandering around gawking at the poster and map-filled walls of the building. The halls were like a gallery of seismic art.</p><p>Moore, a woman who exuded the calm wisdom of a veteran high school science teacher, was the first to respond to my question. “What are there like 20 people living in Parkfield?” she asked. “We’d probably get more complaints from cows.”</p><p>She chuckled a bit and smiled at me.</p><p>“Yeah, right,” Michael interjected, “but think about the difference if SAFOD was in a major metropolitan area? Think of the impact on public perception.”</p><p>“Sure, like if we’d drilled into the Hayward fault?” Moore asked and shook her head. She suddenly looked like she was giving me bad news about my grade in her class.</p><p>We all stared at the poster. And I understood what they were saying. If SAFOD was drilled in the Bay Area, underneath Oakland or Berkeley, along the Hayward Fault, then the 2004 quake could have triggered an unwanted ripple-effect reaction from the public. People might believe—against all “objective” evidence to the contrary&#8211;that the USGS had caused the quake by drilling into the fault zone.</p><p>The resulting waves of fear and panic could endanger the very existence of seismology as a legitimate government funded science. It’s not too difficult to imagine this happening; and it explained at least in part why the USGS continued to use Parkfield for its earthquake experiments. They needed a guinea pig, a geological lab rat, one that nobody knew or cared too much about; and if we wanted to understand earthquakes and their behavior, we needed to let them conduct their experiments beyond the glare of public scrutiny.</p><p>The 2004 Parkfield earthquake might’ve been the most “captured,” mapped, and studied quake ever recorded during the Parkfield Experiment. As such it was probably also one of the most significant earthquakes in the history of seismology and for the future of earthquake prediction; and to my mind it’s at least possible that it may also have been one of the most significant instances of humans directly and measurably impacting the seismic health of our planet. But when I visited six years later few people involved with the USGS wanted to consider this possibility and fewer people in Parkfield even remembered or cared about the quake; and on some level, for the sake of earthquake science and perhaps for the sake of our future survival this was exactly how it had to work. On some level I appreciated the silence, the quiet surface in Parkfield and the peaceful pace of life in the Cholame; and though there was little to see, I found myself returning several more times that summer, a intentional tourist turned loose in the earthquake lab, searching for something big.</p><p>***</p><p><a name="_Anchor1"></a>[1] Snyder also told me, &#8221;We are well satisfied with all the media coverage (local, regional, national &amp; international &#8211; print, radio, TV &amp; documentary) we&#8217;ve had over the last few years on the Parkfield Earthquake Experiment and the SAFOD Project.  Nothing has changed of late and we&#8217;re in the &#8220;monitoring phase&#8221; for all the data coming in.”<br /><h3 class='related_post_title'>Related Posts:</h3><ul class='related_post'><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2012/11/tracking-quakes/' title='Tracking Quakes'>Tracking Quakes</a></li><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2013/06/spotlight-perrin-ireland/' title='Spotlight: Perrin Ireland'>Spotlight: Perrin Ireland</a></li><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2013/05/science-still-confusing-still-important/' title='Science: Still Confusing, Still Important'>Science: Still Confusing, Still Important</a></li><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2013/05/academias-biggest-fraud-comes-clean/' title='Academia&#8217;s Biggest Fraud Comes Clean'>Academia&#8217;s Biggest Fraud Comes Clean</a></li><li><a href='http://therumpus.net/2012/12/reminder-of-the-importance-of-nasa/' title='Reminder of the Importance of NASA '>Reminder of the Importance of NASA </a></li></ul>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Tracking Quakes</title>
		<link>http://therumpus.net/2012/11/tracking-quakes/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Nov 2012 21:15:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steven Church</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[rumpus original]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[disasters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earthquakes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://therumpus.net/?p=107414</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<em>I’d lived in California for over six years and still hadn’t experienced a quintessential California quake, still hadn’t come close to what Schopenhauer might call the “dynamic sublime,” the encounter with something powerful enough to destroy you.</em>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><strong> </strong><strong>1.</strong><strong> </strong></p><p>At a little before midnight on Oct. 20, 2012, a 5.3 magnitude earthquake, centered near King City on the San Andreas Fault, shook hard enough to be felt in Fresno, some 130 miles away. It was the first earthquake felt in Fresno in over 25 years. And I missed the whole thing. Slept right through it. I felt nothing. In fact I only knew about it the next morning thanks in large part to what might be called the “social networking seismometer.” As the quake sent its P-waves and S-waves out, they were echoed by the waves of response on Facebook and Twitter. I logged in when I woke up and tracked the ripples of impact. I could not only pinpoint the time but also the distance, direction, and destruction caused in the immediate aftermath of the quake. Some posts mentioned the shaking while others talked of strange rumbling and crashing sounds that earthquakes often produce. If I’d had more Facebook friends closer to the epicenter in the Salinas Valley I know my status feed would have been markedly different, more dominated by the quake. In all, the networked stream provided an interesting anecdotal record of the quake and I wondered if seismologists pay attention to such real-time stories of the fissure and fallout. I read the accounts from friends and felt a sense of loss or failure. I felt depressed. I’d lived in California for over six years and still hadn’t experienced a quintessential California quake, still hadn’t come close to what Schopenhauer might call the “dynamic sublime,” the encounter with something powerful enough to destroy you. The greater the threat, he believed, the greater the experience of the sublime. I wanted to rewind the night, sit up for a while longer, and feel the surprise and confusion, the unpredictable shaking of the quake, but I knew I’d missed my chance. Something else I noticed in the social seismology of the quake was that some people never felt a thing while others couldn’t miss the movement. It seemed that, on some level, you had to be tuned into the temblor, had to be paying attention, but even then those responses were mediated first through the senses, then memory and intelligence, and finally through language; and I started to wonder if, had I been awake, I would’ve felt the quake at all, if I even had the instincts to understand what was happening or the language to capture it.</p><p align="center"><strong>2.</strong></p><p>On Jan. 9, 2010 Sophie the dog knew something was wrong. She was listening, practicing a kind of instinctual auscultation and she sensed the danger before anyone else had a clue. In the video, you can tell the moment she realizes it. She’s lounging on the newsroom floor all dog-like and calm—the kind of beatific calm that, every time I watched her, made me jealous in a deep an existential way. In the office, file cabinets line one wall and an old computer sits on a desk next to what looks like a microfiche machine. A wall calendar hangs on a pillar in the foreground. You can count about a dozen boxes of files and spot a towering stack of newsprint, several cluttered desks, along with a couple of empty swivel chairs in the background,</p><p>At first, there are no humans in sight&#8211;only Sophie lying on the floor in the apparently windowless room of the Times-Standard newspaper in Eureka, California. She’s panting and appears relaxed, clearly at home in her environment. She seems to know this place and it’s rhythms. She could be like a favorite coworker and the sort of benevolent presence that makes everyone’s day a little brighter.</p><p>In the video you notice, at first, Sophie’s ears relaxed, hanging loose. Then as the first, faster P-wave, or push-wave of a 6.5 magnitude undersea earthquake ripples out from the epicenter several miles beneath the surface along the Mendocino Fault, Sophie’s ears spring up, straight and wide-open, the ends curling down a bit. She points her nose at one spot on the floor and seems to follow the movement of something with her eyes, almost as if she’s tracking an invisible rodent or a ghost. Suddenly she jumps to her feet, and sprints out of the room, out of the picture.</p><p><a class="lightbox" title="TrackingQuakes2_Daly" href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TrackingQuakes2_Daly.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-107896" title="TrackingQuakes2_Daly" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TrackingQuakes2_Daly-300x264.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="264" /></a>A split-second later the more destructive S-wave hits Eureka with its vertical amplitude and the newsroom walls begin to wiggle and shake, sending papers and boxes toppling. A man appears from the back of the room and walks to a spot not far from where Sophie had been. He stands there for a moment as the walls move around him, looking utterly confused and terrified. It seems to take a moment for his survival instinct to kick in, but he eventually runs out of the room after Sophie. Soon the lights go out and the security camera screen fills with a strange snow of cascading white bugs.</p><p>Sophie is not the only one, of course. She’s just the one dog I couldn’t stop watching and thinking about during this time in my life. Dogs are of course both social, pack animals and particularly devoted to their human companions. Many people have reported strange reactions from their pets just before an earthquake hits. They describe barking, howling, and running in circles. It seemed clear that the dogs and other animals were trying to tell us something, trying to warn us, but lacking the language to do so. Dogs can smell cancer, hear your heart arrhythmia, and find lost children. Among the many things they do better than us, some dogs also appeared to sense the seismic shifts in the earth’s tectonic plates.</p><p>Some dogs could warn us of the inevitable end or simply teach us how to pay attention to ourselves and to the world. They seemed to feel the rifts rising up from miles beneath our feet as we dumbly waited&#8211;or foolishly sought to be shaken. I admit it. I wanted to feel an earthquake, wanted to understand them, to witness the collision of geological time and human time, but I’m not sure I could explain the reasons behind this desire. Perhaps I simply wanted an unmediated experience, one not conditioned by metaphor or memory, an experience less rational and more instinctual, more animal.</p><p align="center"><strong>3.</strong></p><p>When I asked USGS geophysicist, Andy Michael if anyone has studied the connection between animals and earthquake prediction along the San Andreas Fault, he didn’t dismiss me as a crackpot as quickly as I expected. As it turned out, Michael had also seen the YouTube footage of Sophie and thought we could learn something from studying it more closely. He explained that P-waves, or horizontal “push” waves are longer and faster and are the first waves to ripple out from the epicenter of an earthquake. They are shallow and less destructive, sort of like a warning shot. Right behind them, though, moving a little slower, come the S-waves with vertical amplitude, and it’s these that cause most surface destruction or tsunamis during a big quake.</p><p><a title="TrackingQuakes3_Daly" href="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TrackingQuakes3_Daly-e1353097338128.jpg"><img class="alignleft" title="TrackingQuakes3_Daly" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TrackingQuakes3_Daly-e1353097338128-300x290.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="290" /></a>If we think of an earthquake as a car accident, there is often a moment, a split-second long enough to flinch when you can see the impact coming, when you fling your arm out to protect your passenger, jerk the steering wheel, or slam on the brake. It only lasts a fraction of a second, this warning ripple in time and space, and this is sort of like a P-wave coming in shallow and fast, followed quickly, suddenly, violently and, in the case of earthquakes, inevitably by the devastating S-wave impact.</p><p>“The dog probably just felt the P-wave,” Michael said, looking over his glasses at me.</p><p>Michael had a bit of East Coast intellectualism and the remnants of a New York accent mixed with a cultivated California hippie-cool. He wore sandals and jeans, but he tucked his t-shirt into his jeans. He was a Columbia-trained scientist who played his trombone over sound recordings of earthquakes as part of what he called his “Earthquake Quartet.” I’d listened to his music online and found it difficult to understand. But I’d also listened to the original sound recordings of quakes that Michael used in his musical compositions and found them oddly compelling. They sounded a little like thunder and breaking shale.</p><p>Though he’s a hard-core scientist with all the credentials, Michael still pays attention to anecdotal and artistic interpretations of earthquakes; and when I visited him he told me that he’d compared the video of Sophie the dog with real-time seismographic data from the quake. Michael thought he could synchronize the video footage with the data to show where the dog feels the P-wave and then the exact moment a second or two later when the first S-wave hits.</p><p>“Watch,” he said, “You can see it. The wall calendar swings out sideways like a pendulum.”</p><p>Sophie the dog felt the first push, the flinch, and she jumped and ran before the S-wave hit, shaking everything. I told Michael that I thought this was a pretty impressive display of instinct and intellect and wondered why there weren’t “earthquake dogs” in all buildings threatened by seismic activity. But Michael reminded me that aside from their unreliability (not ALL dogs sense earthquakes)<strong> </strong>the main problem with using some kind of P-wave monitor or, in my mind, a designated Earthquake Dog, for early earthquake warning is that the gap between P-waves and the more destructive S-waves gets wider the further you move away from the epicenter.</p><p>Thus the more advance warning you have from a P-wave monitor, or an earthquake sensing dog like Sophie, the less you need it. Such a monitoring system would only be effective in places where the damage and destruction would be minimal. Closer to the epicenter, those S-waves are coming in so fast behind the P-Waves that there’s often no discernible interval between them, no opportunity for a dog to sense the trembling and save us.</p><p>“If dogs could reliably sense earthquakes,” Michael said, “the best the thing to do would be to build a machine that replicates that sensing.”</p><p>Another USGS official had told me, “What we do is sort of like meteorology.” And it’s true. Seismologists try to predict the unpredictable. They try to understand the chaotic nature of large-scale systems on this planet, systems that obey different laws of time and probability. Andy Michael was perhaps more blunt in his assessment of the challenges facing seismologists.</p><p>“You can see a storm coming. You can evacuate people,” he said, throwing his arms up behind his head. “Probably the best we can do right now with earthquake prediction is give a 10 year window.”</p><p>I mentioned a recent news story that narrowed the window down even more and claimed a big quake was due any day now. Maybe tomorrow. Michael quickly dismissed the article as essentially the equivalent of scientific hearsay, one reporter’s overhearing and exaggerating a theoretical conversation between seismologists; but he also explained that the point really was that you could write such a story any day about the San Andreas or any fault zone and it wouldn’t do anyone any good.</p><p>Why, I wondered then, do we cling to these predictions of a mythically huge quake happening tomorrow? Why do we think we can see the end coming?</p><p>Michael settled into his chair a bit and told me he thought some of our focus on prediction, our desire for answers comes from the unsettling realization that the ground beneath our feet is constantly trembling. Part of it has to do with the ability of a seismic event to affect huge populations of people and to cause destruction to infrastructure—roads, utilities, public transportation, and security—that can’t be absorbed into the economy and can have disastrous long-term consequences.</p><p>“But honestly,” he said, “most of it has to do with the inevitability and unpredictability of earthquakes. They’re happening all the time; and though the chances are slim, a big one could actually happen any minute, could have already happened at the San Andreas a few miles away from here,” he said and pointed out his window,  “and we wouldn’t know it yet, wouldn’t know until it hits us.”</p><p>We both looked out the window.</p><p>“It sounds so existential,” I said.</p><p>“It is,” he said, grinning and shoving his glasses up his nose. <strong></strong></p><p>In 1985 one hundred and twenty-two thousand households in the seismically active Parkfield, California region received a brochure from the USGS warning them of a quake sometime in the next eight years. I wondered how many people in Parkfield marked 1993 with a special calendar, checking off each day they didn’t feel a big one. How long did that brochure stay tacked to the refrigerator? How long did people wait, living with the possibility of disaster.</p><p>I wanted to believe this knowledge of the simultaneous inevitability and unpredictability of disaster could comfort me, that perhaps I could always live in the in-between spaces, the liminal zones between warning and impact.</p><div>***</div><p>Listen to Steven read his essay: <div id="haiku-player1" class="haiku-player"></div><div id="player-container1" class="player-container"><div id="haiku-button1" class="haiku-button"><a title="Listen to Tracking Quakes" class="play" href="http://therumpus.net/wp-content/audio//Church.mp3"><img alt="Listen to Tracking Quakes" class="listen" src="http://therumpus.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/plugins/haiku-minimalist-audio-player/resources/play.png"  /></a>
		
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